# Table 17: Out-of-Sample Prediction (Pre-GFC Model on 2022-2024)

| Metric | Demographic Model | Naive (2007 avg) |
|--------|------------------:|------------------:|
| RMSE | 2.763 | 6.372 |
| MAE | 2.218 | 5.770 |
| Correlation | 0.729 | -- |
| N obs | 46 | 46 |

*Pre-GFC estimation: 435 obs, R2=-0.260. Naive benchmark: 2007 OECD average = 2.49.*